The IMF sees the world economy emerging from its prolonged post-crisis slump in 2017 and 2018. It appears that expansionary monetary policy and fiscal policy (until it was reversed a couple of years ago) have borne fruit. Or it could just be that the world has been through the eight years or so takes to emerge from a serious financial crisis (Rogoff and Reinhart).
There are, however, too many imponderables in the picture- doubts about the fiscal expansion promised by Trump (given the difficulties he's had in dealing with Congress), Brexit and its likely fallout, China's debt overhang, rising protectionism and anti-globalisation sentiment and major geo-political risks, including all-out war in the Korean peninsula. So I wouldn't want to celebrate right away.
More in my article in the Hindu, The world is still flat.
There are, however, too many imponderables in the picture- doubts about the fiscal expansion promised by Trump (given the difficulties he's had in dealing with Congress), Brexit and its likely fallout, China's debt overhang, rising protectionism and anti-globalisation sentiment and major geo-political risks, including all-out war in the Korean peninsula. So I wouldn't want to celebrate right away.
More in my article in the Hindu, The world is still flat.
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